It's not what you think you know, it's what they won't tell you.
A new study of the potential impact of the climate-friendly Waxman-Markey (W/M) Bill on manufacturing, jobs, energy prices and overall economy concludes that its enactment would have strong negative consequences -- including reducing economic growth by 2.4 percent and costing 2 million jobs by 2030, according to a report in The Hill.
The study sponsored by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF) analyzes W/M under low- and high-cost cases with respect to a baseline that projects the future in the absence of the bill.
W/M sets targets that would reduce green house gases (GHG) emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020; 42 percent below 2005 levels by 2030; and 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. The price of carbon permits (what companies must pay to emit CO2) could reach between $48 and $61 per metric ton of CO2 (MT) by 2020 and could increase to between $123/MT and $159/MT by 2030.
This bill passed the House of Representatives by a slim margin (219-212) earlier this summer. The Senate is expected to release its version of climate legislation in September.
Following is a summary of the study’s findings.
Impact on Jobs
The jobs impact of W/M is delayed by the free allocation of permits and generous carbon offsets. By 2030, as emission reduction targets tighten and other W/M provisions phase out, U.S. jobs decline by 1.8 million under the low cost case and by 2.4 million under the high cost case. The primary cause of job losses is lower industrial output due to higher energy prices, the high cost of complying with required emissions cuts, and greater competition from overseas manufacturers with lower energy costs.
Decrease in Disposable Household Income
Higher energy prices would have ripple impacts on prices throughout the economy and would impose a financial cost on households of $118 to $250 by 2020 and $730 to $1,248 by 2030.
W/M’s Impact on Energy Prices
Most energy prices would rise under W/M, particularly coal, oil and natural gas. By 2020 gasoline would increase between 8.4 percent and 11.1 percent, electricity between 5 percent and 7.9 percent. By 2030, gasoline prices increase between 20 percent and 26.1 percent, natural gas by 56.3 percent and 73.5 percent while electricity prices increase by up to 50 percent.